Methodology
How we calculate your date.
The math behind your number, in plain language.
The 4% rule
The 4% rule is a widely used retirement guideline: if you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in your first year of retirement, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year after, your money should last through a typical 30-year retirement. We use it as the threshold for "can you retire" — once your projected balance is large enough that 4% of it covers your target annual spending, we mark that as your retirement age.
Monte Carlo probability modeling Pro
The free and Basic estimates assume one fixed average annual return. Real markets don't work that way — returns vary year to year. Pro plans run your inputs through thousands of simulated market scenarios, each with a randomly sampled sequence of annual returns, and report the percentage of those simulations where your plan survives withdrawals through age 97. That percentage is your confidence level, and the spread of outcomes across simulations is your confidence range. If your retirement age leaves too little time before age 97 for the simulation to meaningfully test survival, we say so directly rather than showing a misleadingly high number.
Where the numbers come from
Every projection starts from the numbers you enter — current age, current savings, monthly contribution, expected annual return, and desired annual retirement spending. We don't model taxes, Social Security, healthcare costs, or inflation-adjusted spending in v1 — the estimate reflects today's dollars and your stated assumptions only. Treat it as a strong starting point for a conversation, not a complete financial plan.
A quick note before you plan
MyRetireDate is an educational planning tool, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Estimates are based on the inputs you provide and general assumptions like the 4% safe withdrawal rule — they don't account for taxes, Social Security, healthcare costs, or your full financial picture. Actual market returns vary and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always confirm major retirement decisions with a licensed financial, tax, or legal professional who knows your complete situation.